"Practice makes perfect," my mother used to say. It's as true of futures trading as of anything else. Before you put your hard-earned cash on the line, you need to practice trading if you want to succeed as a futures trader.
Making practice trades allows you to:
1. Test and fine-tune your trading system.
2. Learn to successfully pull the trigger.
3. Perfect your charting system.
4. Develop productive trading habits.
5. Practice self-discipline.
See if you have what it takes to be a futures trader.
That last item is very important. You can have the best system in the world but if you don't believe in yourself, if you don't believe in your system, if you don't have the passion to trade, no system in the world will make you a successful futures trader. Like I tell my students, successful futures trading is 90% attitude. Not everyone has the skill, passion, ability or discipline to succeed. Better to find out before you lose your money.
In my Futures Trading Secrets course, I recommend that students practice trading on the e-Mini with Sims Broker until they achieve a certain level of confidence and consistency in their trades. Practicing futures trading on paper is important before you attempt the real thing. Before you start trading with real money, you must develop the discipline to control your emotions and stick to your system. Plunking down cold, hard cash opens the door to greed and fear, which can submarine even the best system if not held in check. Practice will give you the skill, confidence and courage to succeed as a futures trader.
Practice trading should be as detailed and meticulously recorded as the real thing:
1. Log and study your profits and losses.
2. Look for patterns that indicate when you successfully pulled the trigger and when you failed.
3. Work to increase successful strategies and decrease unsuccessful ones.
4. Develop successful daily trading habits and routines.
Remember to practice the discipline to stick to the daily habits and routines even when you don't feel like it or they don't seem to be working. Discipline and routine are essential habits of the successful futures trader. Every trader loses sometimes. You have to have the discipline to follow your routine and have faith in your system even when you're losing, if you are to ultimately succeed.
You'll find this systematic approach true of successful athletes, businessmen, writers, dog trainers and, of course, futures traders. If you look at what makes a person successful, you'll discover that he or she has developed a specific routine and follows it religiously every day.
For instance, Tiger Woods doesn't plop the ball on the ground and flail away. He follows a regimented and very carefully practiced series of steps to give himself the best possibility of success. Following a pattern of behavior time after time has helped to make him the world's most successful golfer.
The routine is easy to see in dog training where each training module educates, reinforces, builds on success and leads to the next step. The trainer has broken into a series of steps the behavior he desires the dog to achieve. Before he can heel successfully, a dog learns to follow a series of necessary preliminary steps: sit, stay, start, stop, heel. With practice he learns to watch your left leg and move with it, starting and stopping as you do. In time, the behavior becomes so ingrained the verbal commands are no longer necessary.
My students say it with me: "One of the most important things you can do to improve your trading is to develop specific patterns of behavior."
Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Advertising Your Investment Property in a Slow Market
If the market is slow, you can still sell your estate if you make your listings and signs professional and tempting. Make sure that your flyer is intriguing and well put together as well. Even when the housing is market is slow, you can still be selling your investment property quickly, if you follow a few basic steps:
It's astounding how many listings have fuzzy photographs, unattractive pictures, or little or nodepiction. Make sure that your MLS listings are attractive and really chart the benefits and the charms of the house. Make sure that the pictures are crisp and reveal the best possible colors and angles. Use Photoshop on your pictures to delete any thrash from the front of the home, any fallen leaves, or any gray skies that happened to be there when you are taking your photo.
If you're having an open house, use directional signs on a main street. If your investment house is a little out of the way, you'll have to use dozens of signs in order to guide people from the closest main road all the way to the open house. Consider tying balloons to the sign on the road, or use vivid colors or large font to make sure that drivers see your sign.
Every hardware store retail pre-made for sale signs that allow you to merely write in a phone number. Elude using these signs. They look substandard and unprofessional. Instead, have your signs professionally made, and make sure that you get a solid metal framed sign that comes with a flyer holder. This allows you to put a small flyer for the property right in the sign. Even when you're not there having an open house, people can drop by and get out a flyer to take home with them.
Make sure that your flyer is full-color and includes high-resolution photos of the interior of the property. If you want your investment property to sell, make sure that the copy is very interesting and summarize all the benefits of the home. Allow your tenants or potential buyers to really imagine themselves residing in the property. Don't be anxious to use adjectives or to request people to imagine yourself sitting on the deck of this wonderful Victorian home. that is the sort of writing and the sort of description that will get people fascinated. Don't be afraid to let your traits shine through when writing your brochure.
Source: Advertising Your Investment Property in a Slow Market byRobert Thomson
It's astounding how many listings have fuzzy photographs, unattractive pictures, or little or nodepiction. Make sure that your MLS listings are attractive and really chart the benefits and the charms of the house. Make sure that the pictures are crisp and reveal the best possible colors and angles. Use Photoshop on your pictures to delete any thrash from the front of the home, any fallen leaves, or any gray skies that happened to be there when you are taking your photo.
If you're having an open house, use directional signs on a main street. If your investment house is a little out of the way, you'll have to use dozens of signs in order to guide people from the closest main road all the way to the open house. Consider tying balloons to the sign on the road, or use vivid colors or large font to make sure that drivers see your sign.
Every hardware store retail pre-made for sale signs that allow you to merely write in a phone number. Elude using these signs. They look substandard and unprofessional. Instead, have your signs professionally made, and make sure that you get a solid metal framed sign that comes with a flyer holder. This allows you to put a small flyer for the property right in the sign. Even when you're not there having an open house, people can drop by and get out a flyer to take home with them.
Make sure that your flyer is full-color and includes high-resolution photos of the interior of the property. If you want your investment property to sell, make sure that the copy is very interesting and summarize all the benefits of the home. Allow your tenants or potential buyers to really imagine themselves residing in the property. Don't be anxious to use adjectives or to request people to imagine yourself sitting on the deck of this wonderful Victorian home. that is the sort of writing and the sort of description that will get people fascinated. Don't be afraid to let your traits shine through when writing your brochure.
Source: Advertising Your Investment Property in a Slow Market byRobert Thomson
Monday, January 8, 2007
Valuation
The premium for an option contract is ultimately determined by supply and demand, but is influenced by five principal factors:
The price of the underlying security in relation to...
The strike price. Options will be in-the-money when there is a positive intrinsic value; when the strike price is above/below (put/call) the security's current price. They will be at-the-money when the strike price equals the security's current price. They will be out-of-the-money when the strike price is below/above (put/call) the security's current price. Options at-the-money or out-of-the-money have an intrinsic value of zero.
The cumulative cost required to hold a position in the security (including interest + dividends).
The time to expiration. The time value decreases to zero at its expiration date. The option style determines when the buyer may exercise the option. Generally the contract will either be American style - which allows exercise up to the expiration date - or European style - where exercise is only allowed on the expiration date - or Bermudan style - where exercise is allowed on several, specific dates up to the expiration date. European contracts are easier to value. Due to the "American" style option having the advantage of an early exercise day (i.e. at any time on or before the options expiry date), they are always at least as valuable as the "European" style option (only exercisable at the expiration date).
The estimate of the future volatility of the security's price. This is perhaps the least-known input into any pricing model for options, therefore traders often look to the marketplace to see what the implied volatility of an option is -- meaning that given the price of an option and all the other inputs except volatility you can solve for that value.
Pricing models include the binomial options model for American options and the Black-Scholes model for European options. Even though there are pricing models, the value of an option is a personal decision, requiring multiple trade offs and depending on the investment objective. See the Excel model for the metrics of a call option.
Because options are derivatives, they can be combined with different combinations of
other options
risk free T-bills
the underlying security, and
futures contracts on that security
to create a risk neutral portfolio (zero risk, zero cost, zero return). In a liquid market, arbitrageurs ensure that the values of all these assets are 'self-leveling', i.e. they incorporate the same assumptions of risk/reward. In theory traders could buy cheap options and sell expensive options (relative to their theoretical prices), in quantities such that the overall delta is zero, and expect to make a profit. Nevertheless, implementing this in practice may be difficult because of "stale" stock prices, large bid/ask spreads, market closures and other symptoms of stock market illiquidity. If stock market prices do not follow a random walk (due, for example, to insider trading) this delta neutral strategy or other model-based strategies may encounter further difficulties. Even for veteran traders using very sophisticated models, option trading is not an easy game to play.
The price of the underlying security in relation to...
The strike price. Options will be in-the-money when there is a positive intrinsic value; when the strike price is above/below (put/call) the security's current price. They will be at-the-money when the strike price equals the security's current price. They will be out-of-the-money when the strike price is below/above (put/call) the security's current price. Options at-the-money or out-of-the-money have an intrinsic value of zero.
The cumulative cost required to hold a position in the security (including interest + dividends).
The time to expiration. The time value decreases to zero at its expiration date. The option style determines when the buyer may exercise the option. Generally the contract will either be American style - which allows exercise up to the expiration date - or European style - where exercise is only allowed on the expiration date - or Bermudan style - where exercise is allowed on several, specific dates up to the expiration date. European contracts are easier to value. Due to the "American" style option having the advantage of an early exercise day (i.e. at any time on or before the options expiry date), they are always at least as valuable as the "European" style option (only exercisable at the expiration date).
The estimate of the future volatility of the security's price. This is perhaps the least-known input into any pricing model for options, therefore traders often look to the marketplace to see what the implied volatility of an option is -- meaning that given the price of an option and all the other inputs except volatility you can solve for that value.
Pricing models include the binomial options model for American options and the Black-Scholes model for European options. Even though there are pricing models, the value of an option is a personal decision, requiring multiple trade offs and depending on the investment objective. See the Excel model for the metrics of a call option.
Because options are derivatives, they can be combined with different combinations of
other options
risk free T-bills
the underlying security, and
futures contracts on that security
to create a risk neutral portfolio (zero risk, zero cost, zero return). In a liquid market, arbitrageurs ensure that the values of all these assets are 'self-leveling', i.e. they incorporate the same assumptions of risk/reward. In theory traders could buy cheap options and sell expensive options (relative to their theoretical prices), in quantities such that the overall delta is zero, and expect to make a profit. Nevertheless, implementing this in practice may be difficult because of "stale" stock prices, large bid/ask spreads, market closures and other symptoms of stock market illiquidity. If stock market prices do not follow a random walk (due, for example, to insider trading) this delta neutral strategy or other model-based strategies may encounter further difficulties. Even for veteran traders using very sophisticated models, option trading is not an easy game to play.
Option
An option contract is an agreement in which the buyer (holder) has the right (but not the obligation) to exercise by buying or selling an asset at a set price (strike price) on (European style option) or before (American style option) a future date (the exercise date or expiration); and the seller (writer) has the obligation to honor the terms of the contract. Since the option gives the buyer a right and the writer an obligation, the buyer pays the option premium to the writer. The buyer is considered to have a long position, and the seller a short position.
Given that the contract's value is determined by an underlying asset and other variables, it is classified as a derivative.
For every open contract there is a buyer and a seller. Traders in exchange-traded options do not usually interact directly, but through a clearing house such as, in the U.S., the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) or in Germany and Luxemburg Clearstream International. The clearing house guarantees that an assigned writer will fulfill his obligation if the option is exercised.
Given that the contract's value is determined by an underlying asset and other variables, it is classified as a derivative.
For every open contract there is a buyer and a seller. Traders in exchange-traded options do not usually interact directly, but through a clearing house such as, in the U.S., the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) or in Germany and Luxemburg Clearstream International. The clearing house guarantees that an assigned writer will fulfill his obligation if the option is exercised.
Futures Contract
In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract, traded on a futures exchange, to buy or sell a certain underlying instrument at a certain date in the future, at a specified price. The future date is called the delivery date or final settlement date. The pre-set price is called the futures price. The price of the underlying asset on the delivery date is called the settlement price. The settlement price, normally, converges towards the futures price on the delivery date.
A futures contract gives the holder the obligation to buy or sell, which differs from an options contract, which gives the holder the right, but not the obligation. In other words, the owner of an options contract may exercise the contract. If it is an American-style option, it can be exercised on or before the expiration date; a European option can only be exercised at expiration. Thus, a Futures contract is more like a European option. Both parties of a "futures contract" must fulfill the contract on the settlement date. The seller delivers the commodity to the buyer, or, if it is a cash-settled future, then cash is transferred from the futures trader who sustained a loss to the one who made a profit. To exit the commitment prior to the settlement date, the holder of a futures position has to offset his position by either selling a long position or buying back a short position, effectively closing out the futures position and its contract obligations.
A futures contract gives the holder the obligation to buy or sell, which differs from an options contract, which gives the holder the right, but not the obligation. In other words, the owner of an options contract may exercise the contract. If it is an American-style option, it can be exercised on or before the expiration date; a European option can only be exercised at expiration. Thus, a Futures contract is more like a European option. Both parties of a "futures contract" must fulfill the contract on the settlement date. The seller delivers the commodity to the buyer, or, if it is a cash-settled future, then cash is transferred from the futures trader who sustained a loss to the one who made a profit. To exit the commitment prior to the settlement date, the holder of a futures position has to offset his position by either selling a long position or buying back a short position, effectively closing out the futures position and its contract obligations.
Financial Instruments
Financial instruments is either a real or virtual document representing a legal agreement involving some sort of monetary value.
Financial instruments can be categorised by form depending on whether they are cash instruments or derivative instruments.
Cash instruments are financial instruments whose value is determined directly by markets. They can be divided into securities, which are readily transferable, and other cash instruments such as loans and deposits, where both borrower and lender have to agree on a transfer.
Derivative instruments are financial instruments which derive their value from some other financial instrument or variable. They can be divided into exchange traded derivatives and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives.
Alternatively they can be categorised by "asset class" depending on whether they are equity based (reflecting ownership of the issuing entity) or debt based (reflecting a loan the investor has made to the issuing entity). If it is debt, it can be further categorised into short term (less than one year) or long term.
Financial instruments can be categorised by form depending on whether they are cash instruments or derivative instruments.
Cash instruments are financial instruments whose value is determined directly by markets. They can be divided into securities, which are readily transferable, and other cash instruments such as loans and deposits, where both borrower and lender have to agree on a transfer.
Derivative instruments are financial instruments which derive their value from some other financial instrument or variable. They can be divided into exchange traded derivatives and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives.
Alternatively they can be categorised by "asset class" depending on whether they are equity based (reflecting ownership of the issuing entity) or debt based (reflecting a loan the investor has made to the issuing entity). If it is debt, it can be further categorised into short term (less than one year) or long term.
Financial Markets in Popular Culture
Only negative stories about financial markets tend to make the news. The general perception, for those not involved in the world of financial markets is of a place full of crooks and con artists. Big stories like the Enron scandal serve to enhance this view.
Stories that make the headlines involve the incompetent, the lucky and the downright skillful. The Barings scandal is a classic story of incompetence mixed with greed leading to dire consequences. Another story of note is that of Black Wednesday, when sterling came under attack from hedge fund speculators. This led to major problems for the United Kingdom and had a serious impact on its course in Europe. A commonly recurring event is the stock market bubble, whereby market prices rise to dizzying heights in a so called exaggerated bull market. This is not a new phenomenon; indeed the story of Tulip mania in the Netherlands in the 17th century illustrates an early recorded example.
Financial markets are merely tools. Like all tools they have both beneficial and harmful uses. Overall, financial markets are used by honest people. Otherwise, people would turn away from them en masse. As in other walks of life, the financial markets have their fair share of rogue elements.
Stories that make the headlines involve the incompetent, the lucky and the downright skillful. The Barings scandal is a classic story of incompetence mixed with greed leading to dire consequences. Another story of note is that of Black Wednesday, when sterling came under attack from hedge fund speculators. This led to major problems for the United Kingdom and had a serious impact on its course in Europe. A commonly recurring event is the stock market bubble, whereby market prices rise to dizzying heights in a so called exaggerated bull market. This is not a new phenomenon; indeed the story of Tulip mania in the Netherlands in the 17th century illustrates an early recorded example.
Financial markets are merely tools. Like all tools they have both beneficial and harmful uses. Overall, financial markets are used by honest people. Otherwise, people would turn away from them en masse. As in other walks of life, the financial markets have their fair share of rogue elements.
Analysis of Financial Markets
Much effort has gone into the study of financial markets and how prices vary with time. Charles Dow, one of the founders of Dow Jones & Company and The Wall Street Journal, enunciated a set of ideas on the subject which are now called Dow Theory. This is the basis of the so-called technical analysis method of attempting to predict future changes. One of the tenets of "technical analysis" is that market trends give an indication of the future, at least in the short term. The claims of the technical analysts are disputed by many academics, who claim that the evidence points rather to the random walk hypothesis, which states that the next change is not correlated to the last change.
The scale of changes in price over some unit of time is called the volatility. It was discovered by Benoît Mandelbrot that changes in prices do not follow a Gaussian distribution, but are rather modeled better by Lévy stable distributions. The scale of change, or volatiliy, depends on the length of the time unit to a power a bit more than 1/2. Large changes up or down are more likely that what one would calculate using a Gaussian distribution with an estimated standard deviation.
Sunday, January 7, 2007
Financial Market
In economics a financial market is a mechanism that allows people to easily buy and sell (trade) financial securities (such as stocks and bonds), commodities (such as precious metals or agricultural goods), and other fungible items of value at low transaction costs and at prices that reflect efficient markets.
Financial markets have evolved significantly over several hundred years and are undergoing constant innovation to improve liquidity.
Both general markets, where many commodities are traded and specialised markets (where only one commodity is traded) exist. Markets work by placing many interested sellers in one "place", thus making them easier to find for prospective buyers. An economy which relies primarily on interactions between buyers and sellers to allocate resources is known as a market economy in contrast either to a command economy or to a non-market economy that is based, such as a gift economy.
Financial markets have evolved significantly over several hundred years and are undergoing constant innovation to improve liquidity.
Both general markets, where many commodities are traded and specialised markets (where only one commodity is traded) exist. Markets work by placing many interested sellers in one "place", thus making them easier to find for prospective buyers. An economy which relies primarily on interactions between buyers and sellers to allocate resources is known as a market economy in contrast either to a command economy or to a non-market economy that is based, such as a gift economy.
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